Things will now only look up. But there's a catch
By Mythili Bhusnurmath Whichever way you look at it, GDP data for the first quarter (April-June 2020) of the current fiscal is unambiguously bad. Barring agriculture, which grew 3.4%, every other sector contracted. Construction halved, trade was almost as bad at –47%, manufacturing declined 39.3% and, in the unkindest cut of all, public administration (a proxy for government expenditure) declined 10.3%. Not surprisingly, GDP contracted an unprecedented 23.9%, the worst quarterly growth, not only since the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) began publishing quarterly GDP numbers in the mid-1990s, but in living memory.Given the scale of the disruption in economic activity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, the poor show was not unexpected. The debate, in any case, was never about whether GDP would contract, but about the extent of contraction. Would Indiafollow in the footsteps of Britain, which recorded a 20.4% decline, the worst quarterly performance since record-keeping began in 195...